Hillary’s Voice

Picking Winners by the Popularity of Paraphernalia (New York Times)
Longtime pollsters will tell you that predicting elections is a complex science built on years of population analysis and heady math. But according to CafePress.com, it is simply a matter of throw pillows.

Not just any throw pillows but ones with folksy political slogans like “Hockey Moms for McCain Palin.” Or T-shirts that say “Obama is my Homeboy,” or infant jumpers with groan-worthy puns like “O-baaa-ma” over a picture of a cuddly sheep. Could sales of such items predict who will be elected president? CafePress.com — a site that lets people upload their designs and then prints them on items — says yes, they can…

It turns out that sales of Kittens for Clinton T-shirts are perhaps no less reliable than Gallup polls. For example, sales of Barack Obama merchandise first surpassed Hillary Clinton items in late January, just weeks before the Illinois senator took the lead in the polls. And merchandise for the Obama-Biden ticket was outselling McCain-Palin items until the Republican National Convention ended in September. Sales for both are now neck and neck, much as the candidates are in the polls.

Gallup: Obama back in the lead (Hot off the Trail, McClatchy)
For the first time since the Republican convention, Barack Obama is preferred over McCain in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. The difference isn’t statistically significant, 47 to 45 percent, but it’s consistent with the Ipsos/McClatchy poll released last night, which found the race tied 45-45, but that those who favor McCain are squishier in their support than those who favor Obama.

Matt Davies

Fed Gives AIG an $85 Billion Loan in Exchange for 80% Stake (by Mark Thoma at Economist’s View)
[T]he Fed is going to give AIG an $85 billion loan in exchange for an 80% stake in the company… So you as a taxpayer now have a large stake in AIG.
Now that we own it, can we turn it into a health insurance company and cover everybody?—Caro

Nationalize the World! The Sun! The Moon! Me! (by Arthur Silber at The Power of Narrative)
Funny. Those damned commies won after all. You go, Murka!
Where’s MY bailout?—Caro

Deep Thought (by Susie at Suburban Guerrilla)
Why is Mrs. Alan Greenspan [Andrea Mitchell] allowed to anchor the coverage of the financial crisis at the Very Liberal MSNBC, considering the part her spouse played in this mess? Why does she never mention her conflict of interest?

Hominid Views, Monte Carlo simulations

Links: 9/15/08, 8/15/08, 7/15/08

Wall Street’s Woes Challenge Candidates (Wall Street Journal)
The meltdown poses problems for both presidential candidates and doesn’t especially play to the strengths of either.

Wall Street crisis is culmination of 28 years of deregulation (McClatchy)
WASHINGTON — No one cog in the federal government’s machine of financial regulation let down the country by failing to prevent the latest shakeout on Wall Street. The entire system did.
Why isn’t Obama saying this, over and over and over? Could it be because most of Obama’s economic advisors don’t like regulation, either? And could it be because calling for fiscal responsibility would remind Democrats too much of the Clintons?—Caro

Obama ad hits McCain for saying economy’s ‘fundamentals are strong’ (On Politics, USA Today)
In its latest TV ad, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama’s campaign again takes aim at Republican John McCain for saying the economy’s “fundamentals are strong.” The ad, released moments ago, repeats a message that Obama and his running mate Joe Biden pushed hard yesterday as the crisis on Wall Street continued to unfold. They say McCain doesn’t understand that the economy “is broken:”
That is not the same thing as saying that there are problems, and the problems are because of many years of Republican POLICY. No one wants to believe that the entire economy is broken. It’s too far a stretch right now. People won’t go that far in their thinking without more preparation.—Caro

Matt Davies

Financial Russian Roulette (by Paul Krugman)
Most of the business of finance is carried out through complex deals arranged by “nondepository” institutions, institutions like the late lamented Bear Stearns — and Lehman. The new system was supposed to do a better job of spreading and reducing risk. But in the aftermath of the housing bust and the resulting mortgage crisis, it seems apparent that risk wasn’t so much reduced as hidden: all too many investors had no idea how exposed they were… The real answer to the current problem would, of course, have been to take preventive action before we reached this point. Even leaving aside the obvious need to regulate the shadow banking system — if institutions need to be rescued like banks, they should be regulated like banks — why were we so unprepared for this latest shock?

“Massive Systemic Meltdown” (by Arthur Silber at The Power of Narrative)
Look at it this way. It’ll be something to tell your children about, as you all sit around the campfire and open your last can of food. Or you can learn to shoot moose. Of course, someone might still blink, putting off the day of reckoning for a few more weeks, or a month or two. But I doubt that can be done much longer. This will be a good week to be unconscious. Or heavily drugged. Your choice, because we’re free and that’s why they hate us. Or something.

Electoral-Vote.com

Gallup daily: McCain, 48%; Obama 45% (On Politics, USA Today)
The presidential race narrowed by a scant 1 percentage point in the past day, Gallup estimates. Its tracking poll results, released moments ago: Republican presidential nominee John McCain, 48%; Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, 45%. Yesterday, McCain led 48%-44%.

InsiderAdvantage: More Battleground Polls (Political Wire)
InsiderAdvantage released presidential race polls from several key battleground states.
Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 46%
Florida: McCain 50%, Obama 42%
Michigan: McCain 45%, Obama 44%
Nevada: McCain 46%, Obama 45%
Ohio: McCain 48%, Obama 47%

Quantifying The Enthusiasm For Sarah Palin (by Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic)
The huge crowds Gov. Sarah Palin attracts are one thing, but enthusiasm about the Alaska governor has produced an outpouring of volunteers for the GOP’s get-out-the-vote program. According to a Republican official, countywide, seven to ten times as many new volunteers are signing to help as compared to the same days a month ago.
And all the unfair attacks on her only fire up these people more. Good job, so-called progressives.—Caro

generic dems sinking fast and will Biden go under the bus? (by John: south of Melrose at Liberal Rapture)

What number is more remarkable in the screen shot from today’s RCP polls? For today, I am going with the second one…A few short weeks ago the generic DEM lead was 16%. The generic Dem number has been sinking since BHO was anointed. If it continues to sink…hmmm…sure, I’ll say it again: Obama is poison. One other note: Is Biden telegraphing the end of his run for VP

OINK (The Real Barack Obama—yes, it’s a conservative site, but the cartoon is funny)

New heights of stupidity (by Glenn Greenwald)
We’re fighting multiple wars; our oldest and most established financial institutions are on the verge of collapse; we’ve fundamentally transformed and then dismantled our constitutional framework over the last eight years, etc. etc. But the Right and their media partners are striving to ensure that our election this year is going to be dominated and determined by whether John Kerry looks stupid in wind-surfing tights Barack Obama called Sarah Palin a “pig” when he invoked a meaningless cliché.
Dear Glenn: The reason why Democrats keep losing is because they have apologists like you who either don’t see or won’t tell what’s really going on here. Obama didn’t “invoke a meaningless cliché”. It was a purposeful insult, as was the comment that quickly followed it about old fish. John McCain is old, see? SEE? He’s last week’s smelly old fish.When “career liberals,” as our friend Bob Somerby likes to call them, ignore the obvious sexism in Obama’s comment, they do their side no favors. Obama meant a sexist slur, and his audience knew it. They reacted accordingly. Just as his audience for the “cheek scratching” episode obviously knew he was giving Hillary the finger. For an astute observer like yourself to cover up this obvious intent is to do a disservice to your demand for truthful reporting by the mainstream media. You have to live it yourself to demand it of others. And you are not doing that when you blind yourself to obvious intent, simply because you do not WANT it to be true.

It is official - Obama is the biggest ass**** to ever run for President (by John: south of Melrose Liberal Rapture)

Yes, he said it. Why don’t you give them the finger, Barack, as you did Hillary? You are one classy dude. So, how’s all that nastiness working out for you, Barack?—Caro

McCain holds 5-point lead for second day; in past, such advantages have held for a while (On Politics, USA Today)
Two days in a row now, Gallup’s presidential tracking poll has given Republican nominee John McCain a 5 percentage point lead over Democrat Barack Obama. The latest reading, according to Gallup: McCain, 49%; Obama, 44%. That’s the same score as yesterday. And according to Gallup, history suggests McCain’s lead could last for at least a while.

McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents (Gallup)
PRINCETON, NJ — John McCain’s 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking… Regionally, Gallup finds solid gains for McCain in all areas of the country except the West, where his already fairly high support has held steady. However, the 9-point increase for McCain in the South on top of his previous 49% support level in that region makes the South now overwhelmingly pro-McCain, 58% to 36%.

The Palin Phenomenon Drives Campaign Coverage: September 1 - 7, 2008 (Project for Excellence in Journalism)
For the first time in the three months since the general election campaign began, John McCain last week generated more coverage than Barack Obama. But he was still outshone by another newsmaker during the GOP convention—his own running mate. Sarah Palin, the first woman on a Republican ticket, was the focus of feverish attention as the media tried to find out more about her, convey her record and biography, and calculate her impact on the race.

This is what passes for humor among the Obamabots (thanks to HillBuzz)

Obama Pods are monsters. Pods create ebay page to “sell” Palin’s 4 month old son (by John: south of Melrose at Liberal Rapture)
I have said for months that Obama PODS are fiends. Monstrous fiends who will go to any length to slander and defile good people. The PODS are a mob with no [conscience]… Have any of us ever seen so many people so willing to jettison all human decency?… The Democratic Party is lost. Gone. Over. It is experiencing a death rattle. I urge every normal person to plunge a dagger into the body now. Kill it. It must be destroyed so something can take its place… I don’t care who wins finally. This blog will stand in opposition to the PODS for as long as it takes.

Closing in: Real Clear Politics

Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama (USA Today)
WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year. McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general… McCain has narrowed Obama’s wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate’s top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he’s favored by 3… In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. [Emphasis added in all cases.]

McCain Beats Obama in TV Ratings (by SusanUnPC at No Quarter)
John McCain has topped Barack Obama. “McCain TV Ratings Beat Obama in Preliminary Numbers” at TVWeek.com, via Memeorandum.com: “Across all broadcast networks Thursday, Sen. McCain’s speech ended the night with a 4.8 rating/7 share, compared to Sen. Obama’s 4.3/7 average.”
People are clearly looking for an alternative to Obama.—Caro

Buck Fush

McCain vows to fight, fight, fight for better America (McClatchy)
ST. PAUL, Minn. — John McCain cast himself Thursday night as a lifelong fighter for his country who’s ready to lead new battles for dramatic change as he accepted the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

CBS/NYT Poll: McCain Pulls Even With Obama (Political Wire)
The presidential race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain is now even with each getting 42% in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn’t vote. A poll conducted just last weekend found Obama ahead by eight points, 48% to 40%. Key finding: McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists.

There’s Something Missing in St. Paul (by Lawrence Kudlow)
On CNBC last night Jack Welch, GE’s CEO from that firm’s salad days in the ’80s and ’90s, pointed out the dangers of a three-house Democratic sweep. He says it’s dangerous for both the stock market and the economy. And he wants to know why the St. Paul Republicans aren’t running against Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama. Welch made the point that the last time the Democrats had control of all three houses in Washington the Jimmy Carter administration was in charge. That was a time of economic and stock market malaise. However, when Washington was divided — as was the case when Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were in the White House — the economy and the stock market took off.
My, my, Jack Welch agrees with me on the split government possibility. That puts him in pretty rarified company. I wish I had his income!—Caro

Denver And Palin Fuel Biggest Campaign Week Yet (Project for Excellence in Journalism)
For much of last week, the Democrats’ effort to make peace and reintroduce Obama to voters were the focal points of campaign coverage. How much success did John McCain have in suddenly stealing the media narrative?

Bag News Notes

Palin touts small-town roots, rips Obama
ST. PAUL, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Sarah Palin touted her small-town roots and lashed out at Democrat Barack Obama during a fiery speech to the Republican convention on Wednesday, ridiculing her critics as out-of-touch elitists who do not understand everyday life in America. In her public debut in the spotlight, John McCain’s choice for vice president electrified supporters with a brutal assault on Obama and members of the news media who have questioned her qualifications. “If you’re not a member in good standing of the Washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone,” the Alaska governor told the crowd, which chanted “Sarah, Sarah” and held signs reading “Palin Power” and “Hockey Moms 4 Palin.”
Yep, that’s the line of attack. I used to think Republicans were just making up this elitism stuff about Democrats. Since then, I’ve met the Arugula Left myself, up close and personal. This will “resignate”, my friends.—Caro

Matt Davies

Palin’s path to the top paved with good luck (McClatchy)
St. PAUL, Minn. — A charmed political career launched Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin from small-town mayor to the Republican National Convention, where she’s set to accept the nomination for vice president Wednesday night.
PALIN’s path is paved with good luck??!! How about being handed a nomination against a formidable opponent?—Caro

Wednesday: It matters who counts the votes (by riverdaughter at The Confluence)
Last Wednesday morning, a vote was held in Denver in the hotels of the state delegations. Later that afternoon, a “roll call” was held in the convention center and Barack Obama was hailed as our new nominee. The funny thing is, those of us who remember what the primary results were in some of our states could not reconcile our memories with the way our delegations actually voted… What we know of the vote last Wednesday is that Hillary actually received more than 1900 delegates before the counting was stopped. We have been told that the delegate count was getting too close for Pelosi et al to explain away… [N]o one who witnessed this should feel any less outraged and those who participated in the fraud should never expect unity. There will never be any resolution to this primary season.

Palin “risky,” but Ferraro “a disaster,” says Clyburn
House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) is lukewarm on Palin, speaking to South Carolina radio.
Would somebody shut this guy up? His misogyny is showing again. And maybe the Palin selection isn’t as risky as Democrats might think. See below.—Caro

You Can Run, But You Can’t Hyde! (by garychapelhill at The Confluence)
Do you ever get the feeling that the whole world is upside down?

Upside-down White House

Gallup: Obama Leads By Six Points (Political Wire)
The first Gallup tracking poll based entirely on post-Democratic convention attitudes shows Sen. Barack Obama maintaining a six percentage point lead over Sen. John McCain, 49% to 43%. “Comparing Obama’s current 49% support with the 45% he received immediately before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week suggests he received a 4-point bounce out of the convention, fairly typical of past convention bounces.”

AP: McCain raised at least $47M in Aug. (On Politics, USA Today)
John McCain’s presidential campaign collected at least $47 million in contributions in August, the Republican senator’s biggest monthly haul so far, the Associated Press reports. The wire service says it got that news from “two campaign officials” who talked about it “on the condition of anonymity because the numbers had not been officially tallied.” In July, Democrat Barack Obama’s campaign raised $50 million. The AP said his campaign would not comment on its August fundraising. Neither campaign is required to give its August financial reports to the Federal Election Commission until Sept. 20.

Things That Are Awesome (by Maya at Suburban Guerrilla)
The Daily Show’s pre-RNC billboard in MN:

CNN Breaking News (via email)
President Bush, Vice President Cheney to skip Republican convention because of Hurricane Gustav, White House says.
GOOD MOVE, White House. Very smart move. Now the convention doesn’t have to deal with the two of you.—Caro

Actually? I’m glad I don’t have to explain this (by katiebird at The Confluence)
Because some things are just beyond reason. The title of this video is Foul Don Fowler Amused by New Orleans Hurricane. [Click through to watch it.] And Michael Moore thinks it’s funny too.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Sunday, August 31, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—the day before the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin—shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by three percentage points both with and without leaners. That’s exactly the same edge Obama enjoyed a week ago on the eve of the Democratic National Convention.

Cyclops and the Sirens to Open for Obama (by Pat Racimora at No Quarter)

[Thursday night’s] Message? (by Big Tent Democrat at TalkLeft)
Um, so the message [Thursday night] is that Democrats like to go to concerts? And the “Yes, We Can” song? With Obama speaking cuts in the middle and big pictures of Obama? Not a good idea. In my opinion of course. I’m not following what this is supposed to be achieving tonight.

Good News and Bad News (by Susie at Suburban Guerrilla)
Pat Buchanan calls Obama’s speech the finest he’s ever heard. The bad news is, he liked it because “it isn’t a liberal speech.

Surface and Depth (by Anglachel)
Bill [Clinton] knows that trying to tie McCain to Bush won’t work. Gore and Kerry both lost running campaigns about being better than the other guy, because the other guy can and will (with the full complicity of the MSM, as the Incomparable Bob Somerby reminds us) trample our goodness into the ground. What the Big Dog did, what Hillary did, was tie both McCain and Bush to the fucked up political philosophy of the Right. They made the argument about more than a single administration - it is against the Republicans as such, from Reagan forward…

Obama set to woo nation with historic speech
AP - Barack Obama stands before delegates and the nation Thursday — the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s historic “I Have a Dream” speech — to accept the Democratic presidential nomination, the first black man to claim such a prize.
After having roughhoused the first woman who had a chance to claim that prize, and refused her the right to a full roll call for fear he might lose.—Caro

CQ Politics

Bush’s 2004 temple (Politico)
Barack Obama’s appearance in Denver won’t be the first convention speech framed by Greek columns - Republicans who are mocking Obama’s appearance haven’t mentioned it, but George W. Bush accepted his own nomination in 2004 on a set with a similar neoclassical theme.
Is this what Democrats want? For Obama to be compared to George Bush?—Caro

McCain to DNC attendees: go Roman (Hot off the Trail, McClatchy)
John McCain’s presidential campaign issued a press release Wednesday suggesting what people should wear to Barack Obama’s acceptance speech Thursday at Denver’s massive Invesco Field at Mile High football stadium: togas. “Today, workers at Invesco Field are putting the final touches on the newest wonder of the modern political world - The Temple of Obama (”The Barackopolis”),” the McCain release said, sticking to the campaign’s strategy of trying to label Obama as elitist or “The One.” “It is upon this pulpit that Barack Obama will tomorrow night adress thousands of screaming, adoring fans.”
The McCain campaign is winning the humor war.—Caro

Hillary Approval up 6% in Gallup; Hillary 3% Better vs. McCain than Obama (by campskunk at Alegre’s Corner)
So, after all the slings and arrows hurled by the cheetos [folks at Daily Kos], what’s happening with Hillary’s popularity? She’s doing just fine, thank you. A Gallup poll released [Tuesday] shows her at 80% approval among Democrats, up six percent from when she suspended her campaign in June. Looks like the cheetos are all hot air… none of the real Democrats are listening to them.

And how is Obama doing against McCain? well… it ain’t pretty. Say goodbye to the tenuous lead Obama had over McCain in the daily tracking poll. The combination of the Biden bounce and the start of the convention put Obama down two points to McCain for the first time since May 25th, three months ago. [Emphasis added.] The Obama campaign lost their electoral vote lead last week, and now the popular vote lead. They must be sweating bullets. I wish I felt sorry for them, but… A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 23-24 found the [Clinton and Obama] running similarly in trial heats versus McCain, with Obama and McCain tied (47% to 47%) but Clinton having a slim but not statistically significant advantage over McCain (49% to 46%)

Union Station protest at the MSNBC kiosk (by riverdaughter at The Confluence)
We got ourselves a posse and went down to Union Station in front of the MSNBC kiosk. We protested and shouted slogans (in NPR-speak) and completely drowned out the Obamaphiles.

We had a lot of support from passersby. I was very encouraged that there were many sympathetic people. I don’t think the Obama people knew what hit them. They’ve had such a free ride for so long. No one challenged them. no one was skeptical. They have been handled with kid gloves like pampered little brats. But in the face of all of the people they’ve been calling stupid, old women, they seemed oddly subdued. Chris Matthews made an appearance and stood there silently while some of us finally got a chance to tell him how we felt to his face. The coward waited until we left before he came down from the stage to talk to the crowd.

Poll: More than half of Clinton backers still not sold on Obama (USA Today)
DENVER — Fewer than half of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s supporters in the presidential primaries say they definitely will vote for Barack Obama in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, evidence of a formidable challenge facing Democrats as their national convention opens here today. In the survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, 47% of Clinton supporters say they are solidly behind Obama, and 23% say they support him but may change their minds before the election. Thirty percent say they will vote for Republican John McCain, someone else or no one at all.”
So, of course, instead of honoring Hillary and wooing her supporters, they want to take away her roll call vote. On this, the 88th anniversary of the day women were granted the right to vote, they are in the process of suppressing the delegates’ right to vote for the first woman to be a viable presidential candidate. It’s almost cosmic in the level of insult.—Caro

All Hat No Cattle

CNN Forced Obama to Send Early Text Message (Political Wire)
Sen. Barack Obama planned to name Sen. Joe Biden as his running mate by text message at 8 a.m. ET Saturday morning, but was forced to move up the announcement when CNN broke the story after midnight. The message instead went out just after 3 a.m. ET.
So the 3 AM text message wasn’t meant as a slap at Hillary? Sure. And he was only scratching his cheek, not giving Hillary the finger, in Pennsylvania. If you’re going to be a low-down, dirty dealer, Barack, don’t try to make excuses for it.—Caro

Here’s what’s really happening at the convention:
Tensions boil between Obama-Clinton camps (Politico)
DENVER — As Democrats arrived here Sunday for a convention intended to promote party unity, mistrust and resentments continued to boil among top associates of presumptive nominee Barack Obama and his defeated rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton… One senior Obama supporter said the Clinton associates negotiating on her behalf act like “Japanese soldiers in the South Pacific still fighting after the war is over.” A prominent Obama backer said some of Clinton’s lieutentants negotiating with the Obama team are “bitter enders” who presume that, rather than the Clintons reconciling themselves to Obama’s victory, it is up to Obama to accommodate them.

This ticket is the most upside-down thing the world has seen since the crucifixion of St. Peter (by Joseph Cannon at Cannonfire)

AP: Obama’s Choice of Biden Shows Lack of Confidence (by Jeralyn at TalkLeft)
The Associated Press’ analysis of Sen. Barack Obama’s pick of Joe Biden to be his VP: It shows a lack of confidence on Obama’s part: “The candidate of change went with the status quo. In picking Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate, Barack Obama sought to shore up his weakness — inexperience in office and on foreign policy — rather than underscore his strength as a new-generation candidate defying political conventions.”

Caucus Fraud: Coming soon to your convention (by riverdaughter at The Confluence)
After all, what is a party convention but one giant caucus? And what has Obama’s campaign been up to the last couple of months but figuring out new ways of intimidating, bullying, deceiving and poaching Hillary’s delegates? This stuff is second nature to the Obama campaign by now. After all, It worked so well during the primary season.
John Siegal of WeWillNotBeSilenced said they will have copies of the DVD if anyone needs one in Denver.—Caro

Thanks to Ann MacNaughton, via email:
Great news! Texas SD 13 Clinton Delegate John Grothues reports this morning: …[W]e have received instructions from the Hillary people to vote for Hillary the first time. Then vote as our conscience dictates. Which for most of us means - Hillary again and again. You can be sure and can tell everyone, that I can conceive of no way that I can be bullied to change my vote.